Load forecasting for a natural gas marketer
Evidence label: Measured Result- 33%
- lower penalty cost per customer, against the three years before
- $170,000
- lower penalty cost over the 2024 to 2025 year than the baseline rate, normalized for customer count
- 30 days
- from delivery to daily use in the nomination workflow
The full example, from facility to what happened next
- Facility type
- A natural gas marketer nominating daily gas volumes for hundreds of transport-service customers.
- Problem
- When a customer's actual use differed from the nominated volume by more than 5%, the marketer paid a penalty on the excess. Earlier forecasting tools, including one from a third-party provider, had not solved it.
- Finding
- Customer-level forecasts could cut penalized deviation roughly in half against the three years before.
- Recommended action
- FLOCK, a forecasting and advisement tool giving seven-day recommendations for each customer, built into the daily nomination workflow, with the scheduling team free to adjust any recommendation.
- Economics
- Over the 2024 to 2025 year, realized penalty costs fell about $170,000 against the 2021 to 2024 baseline, normalized for customer count: a 33% reduction per customer. Following every recommendation without adjustment would have cut penalties by about 49%.
- My role, before Pathline
- I co-founded smartMFG Solutions, served as its CEO, and built FLOCK.
- What happened next
- The same discipline, a forecast measured against a stated baseline, is what Pathline brings to facility forecasting and monitoring.
Client described only as a natural gas marketer. Figures from smartMFG Solutions' FLOCK white paper, April 2025.